News - Voting Analysis (5): "Western Vote" versus "Eastern Vote" | Eurovision Song Contest News - 2009 Moscow, Russia 

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The Final

Voting Analysis (5): "Western Vote" versus "Eastern Vote"

"Indeed, western European participants have to decide whether they want to take part from here on in because their prospects are poor." said Sir Terry Wogan last night during his commentary for the 53rd Eurovision Song Contest in Belgrade.

Sir Terry, who has commentated on the competition since the 1970s for the United Kingdom, said: "Russia were going to be the political winners from the beginning."

Terry Wogan Interview on Youtube click here

esctoday.com decided to take a closer look at this viewpoint. We decided to separate all of the "western european" countries' votes as labelled by the list of western european countries by the United Nations found here. We also decided to separate all of the "eastern european" countries' votes as labelled by the list of eastern european countries by the United Nations found here. We applied this situation to the Grand Final.

NOTE: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are not featured or "labelled" on either of these lists, therefore these countries' casting votes were removed for the sake of argument and fairness. Also, by coincidence, there are exactly 20 "western european countries" and 20 "eastern european countries" featured on each list which participate in the Eurovision Song Contest.

Please note: as eurovision.tv does, we DO take into account the tie-break rule for positions other than the winning. The use of this rule is disputed but generally does not affect the results too much.  

The "Western Vote" Result Table:

  1. Greece - 96 points
  2. Armenia - 93 points
  3. Norway - 92 points
  4. Ukraine - 84 points
  5. Russia - 83 points
  6. Turkey - 68 points
  7. Iceland - 62 points
  8. Portugal - 62 points
  9. Serbia - 60 points
  10. Latvia - 54 points
  11. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 51 points
  12. Spain - 50 points
  13. Denmark - 44 points
  14. Israel - 42 points
  15. Sweden - 38 points
  16. Romania - 33 points
  17. France - 25 points
  18. Azerbaijan - 23 points
  19. Finland - 22 points
  20. Albania - 21 points
  21. Georgia - 19 points
  22. Poland - 14 points
  23. United Kingdom - 14 points
  24. Croatia - 8 points
  25. Germany - 2 points

Notice on the "western vote" that eventual winners Russia, would have finished 5th, Greece would have come 1st as opposed to 3rd, Armenia would have came 2nd from 4th, Norway would have came 3rd but finished 5th overall, Ukraine would have came 4th but came 2nd overall. But the points differnce between the top 5 countries is close. Germany would have finished last as opposed to the United Kingdom overall.

Now the "Eastern Vote" Result Table:

1. Russia - 161 points

2. Ukraine - 121 points

3. Greece - 104 points

4. Azerbaijan - 102 points

5. Serbia - 95 points

6. Armenia - 94 points

7. Norway - 73 points

8. Israel - 66 points

9. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 56 points

10. Turkey - 52 points

11. Georgia - 50 points

12. Albania - 33 points

13. Croatia - 33 points

14. Latvia - 27 points

15. France - 18 points

16. Denmark - 16 points

17. Finland - 13 points

18. Romania - 12 points

18. Germany - 12 points

20. Sweden - 9 points

21. Portugal - 7 points

22. Spain - 4 points

23. Iceland - 2 points

24. Poland - 0 points

24. United Kingdom - 0 points

Russia finished 1st as in the overall final result. 2nd Ukraine as in the overall final result also. 3rd Greece as in the overall final result, 4th is Azerbaijan who finished 8th overall, 5th is Serbia who finished 6th overall. Poland and United Kingdom shared joint bottom according to the "Eastern vote" which Poland finished 2nd last and United Kingdom came bottom in the overall final result.

THE 12 POINTS

We decided to find which country polled the most 12 points scores (ie. countries who scored 12 points on more than one occasion.)

From the "western vote alone", the top 12 points scorers were:

1. Armenia (4), coming from France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Greece.

1. Greece (4), coming from United Kingdom, Germany, Cyprus and San Marino.

2. Denmark (2), coming from Iceland and Norway.

2. Norway (2), coming from Sweden and Finland.

From the "eastern vote alone", the top 12 points scorers were:

1. Russia (5), coming from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus.

2. Serbia (3), coming from Montenegro, Slovenia and Bosnia & Herzegovina.

2. Armenia (3), coming from Poland, Russia and Czech Republic.

3. Bosnia & Herzegovina (2), coming from Croatia and Serbia.

3. Azerbaijan (2), coming from Turkey and FYR Macedonia.

3. Greece (2), coming from Romania and Albania.


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ben z [46172]
Wed 28 May 2008 22:39:32

Hi João LuSeNo Galaico-Português

Yes, I just had to give Ex-Yugoslavia examples to show that the opposite is true about traditional songs, well - at least in the case of east Europe, beside the crutial evidence of Portugal getting helf the points from double the amount of countries in the 2-semifinal-grand final comparison. & deep traditional songs were always appriciated in ESC' that's why I like it, & that's what makes ESC different from MTV colture. if I thought ESC was just about commercial pop songs I wouldn't love it so much.

BTW, here are 3 examples:

Ukraine: 2-semi gave Portugal 8 points. Grand-Final gave Portugal 3 points.
Czech: 2-semi gave Portugal 7 points. Grand Final gave it a big fat zero 0000...
Belarus: 2-semi gave Portugal 8 points. Grand-Final gave Portugal, again, a big fat zero ooooo!!!
No musical logic at all...only diaspora logic

Next year only the countries in the final should vote, or 50%-50% televote-juries. I don't know which solution, if any, is better, but it's up to the EBU to do a research & make a change for next years final. Or the EBU will find himself with no more competitors from west europe. Especially Portugal won't have a chance in a milion years to win it the televote system in the final won't change.

It's such a shame that the semis system improve things only to be corrupted again under the old voting system in the final. Imagine if Portugal would got even 200 points in the final according to 2-semi logic, it would have finally be in the top 5 for the first time in 44 years of participation, such a shame...
& If "simple me" done this tiny checking about Portugal's result comparison in bith events, I'm sure the great minds of EBU can sit & find a better system for next year.


BURR [36045]
Wed 28 May 2008 19:11:17

No problem!
Change the rukes every year until Switzerland wins!!!! lol!! )))


Alex Koenig [24146]
Wed 28 May 2008 14:23:24

@ mehmet ak

no problem. misunderstandings can happen.
ozur dilemene gerek yok :-)


João LuSeNo Galaico-Português [38265]
Wed 28 May 2008 01:50:44

benz z

everyhting you said it is true, i agree with all your words!

you're totally right!

Some people complain about portuguese songs because they are too much traditional sounds and because they didn't stay in your mind! That's just rubbish comments, because traditional songs that's what receive more points in ESC, everybody knows, who says the opposite is just being ridiculous!

If people say that traditional songs are not good how come that Serbia got the second place in 2004 with a very very traditional sound song, that didn't stays in your mind and it's a song that no one will hear in a pub??????????

so i can get a conclusion! People that says traditional songs are not good and then we see Serbia receiving 263 points with a deep traditional song they just give us proves about the dispora voting! IT IS INDEED DIASPORA VOTING

(so in 2004 people voted for Lane Moje but they didn't like the song, it was just because it was from Serbia and Montenegro)
Some people suck!


João LuSeNo Galaico-Português [38265]
Wed 28 May 2008 01:26:34

Benjamin Doyle

thanks for your words, and thanks for making me see the 13th place in a better way - the 2nd of western countries. However it is in fact a 13th place and we cannot change that.

Portugal among the old countries in ECS has the worst history. Our best result is a 6th. That shows everything.

Uk's song this year was not bad at all. Not a winning song, that we all know, but it was well performed.

I know Serbia loved Vânia, and i think also Europe. I know this year everyone payed attention about Portugal, for good or bad reasons. A person that says that our song this year was nothing special, with all do respect, is a non-taste person!

I think we have to separate what we like and what we have to admit that it's good. I was never very into Icelandic song but as a fair person i have to admit they performed very very well. Azerbaijan song, i was never into this song too, and i still not enjoying such a screaming song.

Senhora do Mar was the best song with the best singer this year! If we compare Dima to Vânia he is not a singer at all!
Senhora do Mar it would have won if it was a song from some eastern country! I think we (western) need to start making what they do in the East: give votes around the western countries!

Have a good night.


mehmet ak [41584]
Tue 27 May 2008 22:23:57

@Alex Koenig
i'm so sorry.oncekileri okumadan direk senn yorumunu okuyunca öyle anladım.özür dilerim....




ben z [46172]
Tue 27 May 2008 16:08:13

John Oliver, just like you agree with me about Portugal with it's helf points in the final in comperison to the 2-semi final, I totally agree with you on Greece - I never liked that song, I think it's bland & "American", not related to the familiar ESC music. & I think many people voted for it because the singer is so sexy & gave good performance but the melody, lyrics & vocals - just boring. Anyway, that's my opinion, as I admit that Greece was loved by almost all the countries & won in the 1 semi & 3 in the final.
But to all the people who say that Portugal isn't contemporary - so what? The 2007 winner Serbia was the exect same style as Portugal 2008 - Traditional sound, not in english, & a powerfull singer with backing vocals. So believe me, that if Portugal's Vania would have represented Some country from east-europe with the exact same song, she would have been in the top 5, not 13th, just like she got many votes from countries from eastern Europe under the new voting seperation in the 2-semi, even thoough Portugal is not a light commercial song that people won't hear in pubs & bars.
Notice that when it comes to ex-Yugoslavia, it got many high scores because it sends traditional deep songs, like "Lane-Moje" 2004, "Leila" 2006, "Molitva" 2007 & "Oro" 2008, so why not Portugal? Because of diaspora - not because of the song being too traditional.


Ross Ben-Baharin [32791]
Tue 27 May 2008 11:48:27

Now instead of just bashing all contestants other than UK and Ireland, that Wogan is bashing the ESC as a concept because his favourite countries (UK and Ireland) did not do well. Nationalistic rubbish is what this is.


Ross Ben-Baharin [32791]
Tue 27 May 2008 11:37:41

Statistics do not lie- small difference in the Top 5 in the "western" and "eastern" voting patterns.

Disappointed countries should simple send more competitive songs & performances, instead of trying to find ways to rig the sytem just to win. Lousy.


Russell Symmans [47365]
Tue 27 May 2008 11:04:48

Funny how you never hear Brits complaining about recieving votes from Ireland!!


Alex Koenig [24146]
Tue 27 May 2008 09:40:05

@ Bjarni H. Halldorsson and everybody else

We should not send Svante criticism e-mails. We should send positive and constructive suggestions to improve the system if we have something in mind.


Guy S [51855]
Tue 27 May 2008 08:50:10

so what now, are we gonna bombard this stockselius guy's email? :)
who is he anyway... I'm tired of seeing him every year there. and oh boy how the presentors sucked up to him... yuck.


Alex Koenig [24146]
Tue 27 May 2008 08:18:38

@ mehmet ak

dear mehmet, you need to improve your english or read more carefully to understand better.

what I wrote was an answer to a greek cypriot member who wanted azerbaijan, turkey, israel etc out of the contest because he thought those were not european countries. he was the one that was making the discrimination, not me.

now a translation for you to understand: kibrisi avrupali sayip israil, turkiye,azerbaycan vb yarismaya alinmasin, onlar avrupa'da degil diye yazan bir kibrisli ruma cevap yazdim. sen tamamen yanlis anlamissin. kibris politik olarak avrupali sayiliyor, musluman bir ada olsaydi o da avrupali sayilmazdi dedim. ayrimciligi yapanlara cevap yazdim yani, ayrimciligi ben yapmadim.


Bjarni H. Halldorsson [esctoday.com editor]
Tue 27 May 2008 06:36:51

Svante Stockselius... if you want the system to get changed write this man an email;

stockselius@ebu.ch


mehmet ak [41584]
Tue 27 May 2008 02:37:08

@Alex Koenig
do you think about whether you are intelligent?what do you mean about ''If it was an island with Muslim population, it would never be considered as part of Europe'''..in euorpe there existslots of christian so europe is perfect.what you do is that DISCRIMINATION!!!!


Fez Star [45010]
Tue 27 May 2008 01:49:04

Probably most of you were there in the Belgrade Arena, just like me, and noticed the crowds reaction as we were all leaving the arena. Disappointed! Dima won for obvious reasons: 12 points from almost all ex USSR! It's just not fair!

There were a handful of acts that really rocked the house. One of them is definitely Ukraine! It's just better in every way. Should've been the one.

This is the first time that I'm not looking forward to next year's ESC.


ciao sinan [36724]
Tue 27 May 2008 01:22:13

The Eurovision Song Contest needs new rules!!!

...and I have one examplare!!!

what should brings europe when in the final can vote all 43 countries????

NOTHING!

we have seen it!

at first:

I would like to see the full program with the points from
1-12 by the spokersperson!

the voting part is the most greatest highlight in the show!
please bring it back!!!

we everyone know it!!!! and we wish this back!

please let just the participating countries in the final to vote!

please bring juries to the event, too!
this new rule could help against the diaspora!

if we will see next year 2 semi finals again...
the voting should be change!

-the countries from the semi 1 should vote in the final only for these countries from semi 1 + big four and host country AND not more!!!

-the countries from the semi 2 should vote in the final only for these countries from semi 2 + big four and host country AND not more!!!

-the big four should be divide in two... two of them to vote for the participating countrys from one semi final which has passed in the final!

-only the host country should vote for all participating countries in the final.

-countries that has not passed in the final should't have to vote!

the idea with the voting like this idea would be perfect!
and when juries come back, we would have a real winner without diaspora!

and this is the next new rule:

JURIES PART!

okay, jury system is not 100% against the diaspora
but it could helps 50%!

-after all given points from the participating countries
the juries could give their votes.

-only one jury from each country can give just once the highest "12" point for a country
that came in TOP 10!

-the jury have to search only one country from top 10
and these country gets from the jury the 12 highest point!

this could be the new rule of the voting part from the jury!

and finally europe has a maybe a real winner!


Van T [33371]
Tue 27 May 2008 01:01:56

Just a point about Portugal cause it was great I was realy confused about not doing better (not that I would expect it to win). Portugal was right after the break! Most countries get adverts during the break and that means people changing channels by the time their back they have missed at least the first song after the break. This how Belgium suffered in 2004 when it had one of the hot favourities in the final. Regardless, well done Portugal. We need some more entries like these from you and nothing like we had in the past!!!


Benjamin Doyle [22897]
Tue 27 May 2008 00:44:31

João, I loved Portugal's song. Portugal seem to be getting there with the quality of their songs. Some in the past have been poor, but what country *hasn't* sent a poor entry. Vânia was brilliant, and the song gave me goosebumps. She was the second placed western country after Norway (I consider Greece eastern in its music style). Well done to her and well done to Portugal. Send a Fado style song again - I'm sure it'll do well.

As for us in the UK, we've been lax in our selection process. We are infected with the whole talent contest thing. Andy would always have won over Michele Gayle because of the "Pop Idol" vote. We are too obsessed with reality TV stars here. I think 4 of our 6 entrants in our National Final were "Reality" TV "singers". Why can we not try some new talent? Some record companies must have some people that are talented, but not obsessed with "Popstars" or "Britain's Got Talent". These talent shows are now scraping the barrel for artists. Do any other British people not think, as I do, that these people have entered every talent TV competition since 2000? When everyone's been whittled down over the last 8 years, is it not logical that we only have the worst people left? Even the judges are saying on these "talent" programmes that "you weren't good enough last year, and you're not good enough this year".

If people who go on talent programmes *did* have talent they would already have a record contract.

All this is to prove my point that we are destined to have untalented people every year.

Yes, Andy can sing, and yes, his song was OK and deserved better than last place, but it was never a winner. I predicted it to be 20th at best.

Our Eurovision entry, for the forseeable future, will be chosen by the Popstars fans and teenagers with too much free reign over a mobile phone. Just look at Scooch and Daz Sampson! Evidently these have been chosen by the same people who sit on a bus playing music on their phones.

I agree with many of the comments on here that call for the regional juries to come back. There is no rule in the ESC that says we *have* to choose our national choice in the same manner as the ESC itself.

A mixed regional jury system would let us cut out the slack and get a good song. Increase the number and variety of songs, and let's get rid of this "Joseph vs. Maria" debacle we've put up with for so long!!!

Rant over xxx


João LuSeNo Galaico-Português [38265]
Tue 27 May 2008 00:17:33

Like someone said here before, imagine Dima Bilan from Portugal and Vânia from Russia - things would be the total opposite. Dima would have stayed in the 13th and Vânia would have stayed in the 1st place!

Another example, Marija Serifovic wouldn't have won if she was representing Portugal. (i do not say that complaining about the victory of Serbia 'cuz i like Molitva very much, it is just an example)


João LuSeNo Galaico-Português [38265]
Mon 26 May 2008 23:54:56

Ciao Sinan,

i agree with you that the voting part is the most exciting highlight of the show, and i would like to see the spokeperson saying all the points too!

About having 2 semi finals i think that's not the problem, 'cuz with 2 semi finals and having 20 qualifying countries more countries have the chance to go the Final. The problem is definetly because of the voting system and all the problems associate to it.


João LuSeNo Galaico-Português [38265]
Mon 26 May 2008 23:54:33

I don't care if people like or not Senhora do Mar. There is something everybody can notice: the main part of the comments talk about Portugal, good or bad! Portugal is not anymore a small country in the point of Europe. Senhora do Mar made Portugal standed up! In the last years nothing was said about my country but now Portugal is in the comments of lots of people who also use it to compare with strong countries in this competion. This year Portugal was one of the favourites to win since it got 2nd place in the final! This never happened before! Along with Ukraine, Greece and Russia, Portugal were, before the Finale, one of 4 favourites!

"SENHORA DO MAR" WAS, AND IS, A MARK IN THE PORTUGUESE HISTORY IN THE EUROVISION SONG CONTEST!

I'm so proud of this entrie that i could see Portugal out of ESC, for me this would be the PERFECT end for the "old-fashioned" participation (as some people say) of my country in ESC!


MEHMET ... [22160]
Mon 26 May 2008 23:43:42

wow wow wow hopefully more eastern countries join esc it will be wow wicked contest.


joaquim gonçalves [46117]
Mon 26 May 2008 22:53:01

Esctoday

Time to unite all these opinions and crate a movement to force EBU to find a new way.

Is not east or west ............ This is about songs singers and music .To unite people true music.To make all of us enjoy a great
show ,not to fight because of it.

What to do ! Well y reed somany great proposels on this page

Esctoday we can do a lot.............


joaquim gonçalves [46117]
Mon 26 May 2008 22:45:17

TIME TO CHANGE THE VOTING SYSTEM

A Greatvshow and all we can read is critics because the better is not the winner

I respect Dima Bilan he is excelent artist but not to win this year it was not the best song!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So Next year if the rules continue the same better for many countries to leave the contest to force a reaction from EBU


ciao sinan [36724]
Mon 26 May 2008 22:19:45

the Eurovision Song Contest needs new rules!!!

it's too big to see many countries will participating!
43 countries!!! next year it will be 45? - kosovo will maybe enter and maybe uzbekistan or turkmenistan???

is this the Eurovision Song Contest???

NO, NO - STOP!!!

one evening, one Eurovision Song Contest! not more!

it was okay to saw just one semi final to choice the top 10 in the final. but the system with 2 semi finals didn't work...
it's too much!!!

and what should brings europe when in the final can vote all 43 countries???? NOTHING!

we have seen it!

at first:
I would like to see the full program with the points from 1-12 by the spokersperson!

the voting part is the most greatest highlight in the show!
please bring it back!!!

please let just the participating countries in the final to vote!

please bring juries to the event...
50% juries / 50% televoting - this could help against the diaspora!

if we will see next year 2 semi finals again...
the voting should be change!

-the countries from the semi 1 should vote in the final only for these countries from semi 1 + big four and host country AND not more!!!

-the countries from the semi 2 should vote in the final only for these countries from semi 2 + big four and host country AND not more!!!

-the big four should be divide in two... two of them to vote for the participating countrys from one semi final which has passed in the final!

-only the host country should vote for all participating countries in the final.

-countries that has not passed in the final should not have to vote!

I think we will never see an Eurovision Song Contest with only 24 or 26 participating countries!

the idea with the voting like this idea would be perfect!
and when juries come back and we would see 50% juries voting and 50% televoting we would have a real winner without diaspora!


Alex Koenig [24146]
Mon 26 May 2008 21:34:02

@ neo nikolais

Do you think Cyprus is geographically in Europe? It is in Europe for political reasons. If it was an island with Muslim population, it would never be considered as part of Europe. Therefore try to accept all EBU members as part of this contest, even if they are from another planet.


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